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Facing the construction season the demand in cement bulk cars is expected to grow. Are such expectations in terms of the current year justified? Olga Plutakhina, Director of construction materials transportation Department of the Pipe Transport Company has shared her opinion in this relation.

- What is the current state of bulk cement cars fleet in Russia according to your estimates?

In general the current state of the existing fleet is rather satisfactory: the current average age of such cars is 10 years (as compared with the lifetime of 26 years). It is stipulated by the large-scale renovation of the fleet in 2006-2008. About 11.5 ths. units were manufactured within this period.

- What is the extent of the fleet utilization efficiency?

Statistically about 40% of the cement bulk cars fleet is utilized for the non-construction cargo transportation namely for glass industry cargo and the range of other cargos allowed for the hopper transportation. The share of the cement bulk cars fleet used directly for cement shipment comprises just 13.5 ths. and 22 ths. cars.

- Does it turn out that the excess of cement bulk cars is observed in the market? Is 13.5 ths. of cars a sufficient amount required for the whole declared volume of cement delivery to the customer?

According to our estimates 35 mln. t. of cement were shipped by the railroad transport in 2010. The available fleet required for such amount of cement transportation during the peak summer period comprises about 17 ths. of hoppers. In the previous year we managed to compensate for the lacking number of cement cars at the expense of extensive usage of the bulk grain carriers for the construction cargo shipment.

Considering the overall state of the Russian construction industry and introduction of new cement production capacities the transportation demand in 2011 can be expected to exceed the indicators for 2007 which accounted 52 mln. t. In such a case the fleet of cement cars during the peak summer period shall comprise 23-24 ths. units.

Hence the cement production plants can experience the considerable rolling stock shortage in summer 2011. According to our forecast the deficit can exceed 30%.

- Do the car manufacturing plants are really not capable for the production of the required number of cement cars to prevent deficit?

Here I'd like to refer to inexorable statistics repeatedly. During the period from the third quarter of 2003 to the first quarter of 2011 the total amount of such cars produced did not exceed two hundreds. At the same time several thousands of cement cars were disposed of (in relation to the lifetime expiration).

Considering the amount of the cars to be disposed in the following years the estimated annual demand in the new cars construction is 6-8 ths. units.

Theoretically the plants are capable of manufacturing the required amount of cement cars but actually this task is not fulfilled. The plants with the capacities allowing for the required cars manufacturing utilize the customer-furnished casting meanwhile the plants provided with their own casting are not capable of the material redistribution for the purpose of the cement cars production as their capacities are completely loaded by open cars production. Therefore the large-scale production of the required cars is not expected leading to car deficit which can be experienced already this summer.

- As a rule, the car deficit predetermines their lease rates. The perfect example of such situation is the current state of the open car market. How do you estimate the development of the cement cars provision sector?

According to our estimates the companies purchasing new cement cars are forced to fix the cost at a level of RUR 1,800 per day (VAT exclusive) per one car. This particular rate is required for a new car payback within a 7-year period. Large cement cars owing companies can provide the rate a bit lower than RUR 1,500-1,600.

'RZD-Partner', №8